|Title:||China butanol and octanol consumption and share of consumption by type in tons and percentages for 2010 and forecast for 2015|
|Source:||China Chemical Reporter|
Start of full article - but without data
Consumption structure 2010 2015
Consumption Proportion/% Consumption amount/ amount/ thousand thousand tons tons n-Butanol
Butyl (meth)acrylate XXX XX XXX
Butyl acetate XXX XX XXX
DBP XXX XX XXX
Others XXX X XXX
Total XXXX XXX XXXX Octanol
DOP XXX XX.X XXXX
Dioctyl terephthalate XX X.X XXX
Octyl (mcth)arylate XXX XX XXX
Dioctyl adipate XX X XX
Total XXXX XXX XXXX
Consumption structure 2010-2015
Proportion/% Yearly average growth/% n-Butanol
Butyl (meth)acrylate XX X.X
Butyl acetate XX X.X
DBP XX X.X
Others XX X.X
Total XXX X.X Octanol
DOP XX X.X
Dioctyl terephthalate XX XX.X
Octyl (mcth)arylate XX.X X.X
Dioctyl adipate X.X XX.X
Total XXX X.X
n-Butanol and octanol (including iso-octanol) are important fine chemical raw materials that are widely applied in the manufacture of chemicals, pharmaceuticals and coatings. n-Butanol is a raw material of organic chemical products like butyraldehyde, butyric acid, butyl amine, butyl acetate, butyl acrylate, dibutyl phthalate (DBP) and dibutyl sebacate. n-Butanol can also be used as an extracting agent for fatty oils, pharmaceuticals, spices, etc. or directly used as solvent. Octanol is mainly used to manufacture octyl acrylate, surfactants and plasticizers such as dioctyl phthalate (DOP), dioctyl terephthalate (DOTP), dioctyl adipate (DOA).
The world's total production capacity of butanol was reportedly X.XX million t/a in 2009, and actual output was X.XX million, tons; octanol capacity was X.XX million t/a that year and X.XX million tons was made. In 2009, the world's apparent consumption of butanol was X.XX million tons, of which XX% was used for producing butyl acrylate, XX% for butyl acetate, XX% for glycol ether, XX% for solvent and XX% for other chemicals. The global apparent consumption of octanol in the same year was X.XX million tons, of which XX% was contributed by DOP production, XX% by octyl (meth)acrylate manufacturing, and X% by other consumption areas.
Since 2007, many facilities for making n-butanol have gradually been put into operation in China, amounting to a capacity of approximately XXX XXX tons a year. As starch is used in several industries including food processing and is easily influenced by the external market to a certain extent, the fermentation process based on cellulose is the main trend for development.
In 2010, China's domestic apparent consumption of n-butanol was around X.X million tons, which was mainly used for making butyl acrylate, butyl acetate and DBP; the apparent consumption of octanol was approximately X.XX million tons, which was mainly applied to the production of diisobutyl phthalate (DIBP), a kind of plasticizer.
DOP and DBP are plasticizers used in China. DOP accounts for around XX% of the total consumption. Unfortunately, the European Union's RoHS instruction and REACH regulation limit the use of chemicals containing phthalates.
In addition, DOP has been classified by the EU as genotoxic. Most of China's polyvinyl chloride (PVC) preservative film manufacturers use DOP and DBP as major plasticizers in processing PVC, which may have potential hazard for human health. Given that Taiwan-made beverages have been found to contain plasticizers, the Ministry of Health of China has added XX kinds of plasticizers, including phthalates, to the List of Non-edible Materials and Easily Abused Food Additives that May be Added to Food Illegally, so as to supervise them seriously.
It is expected that during the XXth Five-year Program period (2011-2015), stricter requirements will be placed on plasticizers in relation to pharmaceuticals, food packaging, daily necessities, toys and other plastic articles. Therefore, green and environment-friendly plasticizers will displace traditional ones, affecting the demand for butanol and octanol.
X. Supply and demand
During the XXth Five-year Program period from 2006 to 2010, China's self-sufficiency with regard to n-butanol and octanol products was only XX%-XX%, leading to relatively high profits and heating up domestic investment and capacity expansion. In the period of 2011-2015, newly ethylene cracking units will make a major contribution to the growth of domestic n-butanol and octanol capacity.
According to expectations, during the XXth Five-year Program period, China's production capacities of butanol and octanol will be XXX XXX t/a and XXX XXX t/a respectively, alleviating the short supply to some extent.
From 2011 to 2015, butyl acrylate will be the main driver of growing demand for n-butanol, and plasticizer production will still be the major octanol consumer.
As international oil prices remain high, investment in coal-to-methanol-to-olefins (DMTO) projects -spurred by the successful industrialization of China's own DMTO technology -has attracted much attention. However, most of China's DMTO projects are being in central and west regions that are rich in coal resources but far from the southeast coastal market. Liquid butanol/octanol are difficult to transport, and hence harder to sell than solid polyolefin products. Consequently, most DMTO projects in those areas are conceived to produce polyolefins instead of butanol/octanol.
In coastal areas of eastern China, many DMTO units are for construction during the XXth Five-year Program period. Butanol and octanol are top-priority products for those projects, which are expected to be competitive upon rough evaluation. But considering the time required for examination and approval as well as construction, coastal DMTO downstream butanol/octanol development projects now in progress or still in the planning stage will not affect the market within X-X years.
X. Analysis and projection of price
To a large extent, prices of butanol and octanol fluctuate together with international prices of crude oil as well as the prosperity cycle of the world chemical industry. However, despite the fact that domestically made butanol and octanol could not meet domestic demand in 2005 -2010, their prices later slid in China along with declining crude oil prices. Generally, the butanol/octanol production business has enjoyed high profits.
During the XXth Five-year Program period (2011-2015), the international crude oil price is expected to remain in the range of US$XX - XXX/bbl, and domestic butanol and octanol capacity will be added rapidly, easing the tight supply. So the domestic market will no longer be a sellers' market. Furthermore, prices of butanol and octanol tend to be steady, and the average rate will fluctuate from RMB XX XXX to RMB XX XXX/t.
The main production methods of butanol and octanol are acetaldehyde condensation, fermentation, the Ziegler process and oxo synthesis of propylene. Ninety five percent of the world's n-butanol capacity uses oxo synthesis processes, which take the propylene as raw material and is also the only industrialized production process for making octanol. The oxo synthesis processes can be divided into high pressure, medium pressure and low pressure.
With propylene, syn-gas and hydrogen as raw materials, mixed butyraldehyde will be produced under catalysis by means of oxo synthesis processes. The catalyst can be separated from the reacted mixture and recycled. Hydrogenation of separated n- and isobutylaldehyde forms n-butanol as well as iso-butanol, which will be made into saleable products via following distillation. Under catalysis of sodium hydroxide, n-butylaldehyde is condensed and dehydrated to generate X-octenal. Hydrogenation of X-octenal creates crude octanol, and rectification finally generates octanol products.