Core Views
After two consecutive years of recession we believe that Venezuela will post positive real GDP growth in 2011. Petroleum-related economic activity will drive the majority of growth, but increased government consumption in the run up to the 2012 presidential election will also feature.
Inflation will remain elevated at the highest level in Latin America, and nationalisations are likely to rise.
Major Forecast Changes
We now see potential for a more unified opposition heading into the 2012 presidential elections, which increases the likelihood of a new ...

Core View:
Peruvian growth will be among the strongest in Latin America over the medium term. Our real GDP growth forecasts come in slightly below consensus as we believe central bank cooling measures will begin to take effect in H211 and 2012.
Domestic demand will be a larger drive of growth going forward. Accordingly, the telecoms, utilities and financials sectors look set to outperform in 2011.
We expect Peru's fiscal accounts to move into surplus in 2011 based on strong revenue growth and the government's commitment to fiscal retrenchment, although consensus is for a ...

BMI maintains a positive outlook for the Colombian port sector in 2011, against a background of good economic growth and rising consumer demand. Also feeding into our positive outlook is our belief that the country's coal mines and onshore oil fields, some the most attractive in the region, will encourage further investment in the port sector. We are forecasting Colombian real GDP growth to come in at 4.7% in 2011, and 4.9% in 2012. We believe Colombia will be one of the few Latin American economies to experience accelerating real GDP growth over the next few years, which will see its ...